Learning Curve

by Mahalakshmi
(Coimbatore,Tamilnadut,India)

What is the equation for the learning curve prediction calculation?

Comments for Learning Curve

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Dec 16, 2009
 Learning Curve Equations
by: Dee Reavis

Learning Curve

y=kx-a
y=the time per cycle
k=the time for the first cycle
x=the number of cycles
a=a constant representing the learning curve percentage


Let?s take an example to see how this works. A certain task takes 50 minutes the first time it is done. The second time it takes 40 minutes. The fourth time it takes 32 minutes. Each time the number of cycles is doubled, the time to complete the task is .8 of the time. This would then be called an 80% learning curve.

Using the above equation we can solve for the variable a for the 80% learning curve:

a=(log k - log y)/log x

Using a simple case of second cycle and y=10 this simplifies to:

a=(log 10 - log 8)/log 2

=.322

using the first equation we can verify our time for the 4th cycle:

y=50 x 4-.322

=32

So there you have all the math required to use learning curves.

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Combining Two Learning Curves

by Jim Stana
(Orlando FL USA)

If I have a total product made up of several items and subassemblies that each follow a different learning curve but roughly the same quantity, is there a way to derive mathematically the overall learning curve for the sum product of those individual learning curves? I am trying to predict overall product cost (time to manufacture x $/hr) of a product using what is known about the subunits and convert that to a top level learning curve model.

Answer

There probably is a way to derive a combination of 2 learning curves. However, if you don't have a Phd in math, the quick and easy way is to use Monte Carlo Simulation. Since you know the parameters of the individual learning curves, you can just plug them into the simulation and let them run. After a sufficient number of interations, you will have an excellent idea of combined learning curve looks like.

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Learning Curve Theory

by Anjala Fernando
(SL)

What is the Important of Learning Curve Theory?

Answer

Learning curve theory helps you to understand how costs go down over multiple repetitions. When a human being begins to do a repetitive task he will take more time than he will after several repetitions. Since time is money, business owner would like to know what his costs will be over time and repetition.

If you as a business person want to make a bid on a government contract to build 200,000 widgets you would like to know what your total cost is to make the whole production run. If you know the time to make widget one and widget 100, you can calculate the learning curve percentage and thus the time to make each of the widgets in the contract. Is it exact? No, but it is a good approximation. With this information you can make a more exacting bid on your contract. (See Learning Curve Spreadsheet)

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